engleski

Analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions and their impacts on COVID-19 in Kerala

In the absence of an effective vaccine or drug therapy, non-pharmaceutical interventions are the only option for control of the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019, a pandemic with global implications. Each of the over 200 countries affected has followed its own path in dealing with the crisis, making it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of measures implemented, either individually, or collectively. In this paper we analyse the case of the south Indian state of Kerala, which received much attention in the international media for its actions in containing the spread of the disease in the early months of the pandemic, but later succumbed to a second wave. We use a model to study the trajectory of the disease in the state during the first four months of the outbreak. We then use the model for a retrospective analysis of measures taken to combat the spread of the disease, to evaluate their impact. Because of the differences in the trajectory of the outbreak in Kerala, we argue that it is a model worthy of a place in the discussion on how the world might best handle this and other, future, pandemics.

COVID-19 ; SEIR ; Monte Carlo ; non-pharmaceutical interventions

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