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European Perspective of the Western Balkans: Increasing Geopolitical Stability through Economic and Institutional Development

The former communist countries of Central and South-Eastern Europe at present are mostly NATO/EU member states. The Western Balkans have a European perspective. However, the economic situation in the Western Balkans is not optimistic, with bleak prospects for rapid economic development. The GDP per capita of the “most developed” Western Balkans state (Montenegro) is still lower than the GDP of Bulgaria, the least developed EU member state. It is not likely that the investment boom and GDP growth experienced in the Visegrad Four and Baltic States in the pre-accession period will be repeated. Demographic challenges in some of the Western Balkans countries are staggering (as well as in the Baltic States, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Croatia). With the possible accession to the EU, the emigration from the Western Balkans countries would most likely increase due to the opening of the labour market in the EU member states. If socio-economic development is not comprehensively encouraged, substantially financed and meticulously audited by the EU, poor economic results and negative demographic impacts of the domestic situation will continue, and external players (Russia and China in particular) will continue to strengthen their economic and political influence in the region. The Bulgarian and Romanian presidencies of the EU have put the Western Balkans rather high on the list of EU’s priorities, with the interim Austrian presidency giving support to the faster integration as well. In the first half of the 2020, the Croatian presidency has, considering the geographic proximity, as well as historical experience and contemporary ties of Croatia to the region, continued with putting the issue on the EU’s agenda. What could be the major implications of the accession to the EU for the Western Balkans countries?

The Western Balkans ; the European Union (the EU) ; Russia ; China ; geopolitics ; demographic indicators ; economic performance

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