engleski

Time Series Data Analysis – Short Term and Long Term Forecasts of Groundwater Levels

It is human nature to comprehend natural processes around us in order to have better control over them. Not knowing how much resource we have available for use, especially if it’s vital for human existence, live us blind, and helpless in case the resource runs out. Many aquifers around the world experience declining trends of groundwater levels, pointing to continuous diminishing of available groundwater reserves. Besides continuous monitoring, short term and long term forecasts of groundwater levels are essential in controlling the status of groundwater reserves as well as planning the water supply for the current and future generations. Since many of today’s wells for water supply are built decades ago when groundwater levels were generally higher, their screens have or may become partly or fully dry, especially during drought periods which, due to climate changes, tend to have longer durations. In these instances, capacities of those wells decreases and optimization of pumping or even alternative solutions should be searched. In such scenarios short term forecasts can be of use in planning of water supply. Time series data analysis methods like for example recession analysis methods and accompanying tools, which can be used to forecast the worst case scenarios, i.e. continuous recessions in long term drought conditions, can be of use in dealing with such short term forecasts. Long term forecasts are though, although important for current generation, of greater importance for future generations and groundwater heritage we live behind. If they show continuous declining trends of groundwater levels, they can mobilise decision makers to search for solutions and undertake steps which will prevent further declining in order to provide long term stable water supply. These solutions usually do not come over night since they may include infrastructure projects which require significant amount of financial resources and time required for their planning, designing and construction. Therefore, it is of importance to identify such continuous declining trends in early stages so that appropriate solutions can be developed before the wells run dry. In these instances, trend analysis methods and tools can be of use.

time series ; groundwater level ; trend ; recession ; forecast

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