engleski

The selection of LNG terminal location based on the evaluation of potential terminal impact on marine environment, safety and costs

In this paper, a new multi-step approach for the selection of an LNG terminal location (for offshore terminal, onshore terminal, or floating storage regasification unit – FSRU) was presented based on the holistic evaluation of the impacts of the potential LNG terminal. The first step was to divide the entire observed area of the Adriatic Sea of the Republic of Croatia into smaller areas by using the geographic information system (GIS) and then selecting areas where the installation of an LNG terminal was technically feasible based on the pre-elimination criteria. Potential LNG terminal areas were selected by taking into account all pre- elimination criteria, and 14 areas were selected by using pre-elimination criteria in a GIS smart chart tool that enabled the analysis of spatial data. The second step involved analyzing the elimination criteria of the 14 areas selected in the first step by pre- elimination criteria analyses. Six potential LNG terminal micro-locations were selected based on the defined elimination criteria. In the third step, these six micro-locations were evaluated by experts by using 38 specific sub- criteria classified into five distinct groups: economic (11 sub- criteria), ecological (13 sub-criteria), safety (4 sub-criteria), traffic connection (6 sub-criteria), and gas needs (4 sub- criteria). The fourth step involved making a multi-criteria expert analysis of the six locations selected in the previous step (for onshore terminals, offshore terminals, and FSRU) for the analysis of three different scenarios by the PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organization METhod of Enrichment Evaluation) method. In every scenario, one group of sub-criteria was selected as the most important according to its cumulative relationship with the other groups of criteria (scenario 1 – economic group ; scenario 2 – ecological group ; scenario 3 – safety group). A different importance (weight) was given to each of the sub-criteria. The methodology presented in this paper can also be used for decision-making processes for other marine and coastal activities, where incorporating an ecosystem approach is necessary for taking into account safety and project costs ; however, the selection of pre- elimination criteria, elimination criteria, and sub-criteria should be carefully adjusted to other situations or activities.

LNG terminal, marine environment, PROMETHEE method, GIS, expert analysis survey, the Adriatic Sea

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