engleski

Socio-economic consequences of population emigration from Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia - current situation and perspectives

The countries of the Western Balkans, through population emigration, are losing their long-term potential for economic growth. Official data show that countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia have lost 181.034 of their citizens in the period 2014 - 2019, who have received residence permits in other EU countries. With the emigration of the population, primarily young people in the age group 25-45, countries lose many times over. This category represents the largest consumer in a economy, which directly affects the gross domestic product. In addition, society loses by investing in education, which creates a direct economic loss due to emigration. Finally, emigration of this category limits the economic potential for long- term development of these countries. The hypothesis we want to prove in the paper is that the emigration of the population reduces the number of enrolled pupils in schools and universities, limits the long-term economic potential for growth and development and puts long-term pressure on the segment of social services. In this paper, in order to prove the hypothesis, we will analyze the level of economic activity through GDP growth during the period 2014 - 2019 in order to measure the achieved level of total product, and monitor the emigration of the population from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. We will also calculate the reduction in potential output measured through GDP as a result of labor emigration, and the negative effects on the education and social service sectors. Key words: Emigration, GDP, Economy, Demography JEL: J11

Emigration ; GDP ; Economy ; Demography ; Western Balkans ; Croatia

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