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Conservation of the Croatian noble crayfish populations confronted with invasive crayfish and climate change – when population genetics meet species distribution modelling

Astacus astacus is a native European freshwater crayfish species with recorded population declines caused mainly by spreading of non-native invasive crayfish species (NICS), anthropogenic pressure onto its habitats and climate change. In order to mitigate further losses in populations’ numbers and genetic diversity of this vulnerable species, effective conservation that will ensure crayfish long-term survival is needed. In this research we merged population genetics and species distribution modelling (SDM) to reveal impact of two NICS and climate change onto A. astacus aiming to direct future conservation programs of the current populations in Croatia. Obtained results indicated that A. astacus populations in Croatia possess high genetic diversity, comprising a significant genetic reservoir on the European level. Results of SDM forecasted that, under pessimistic RCP 8.5 scenario, by 2070 only 13% of this species currently suitable habitat is predicted to remain stable, and populations that are predicted to be lost are populations possessing high genetic diversity. The SDM results for NICS predicted that their projected future distributions will be wider compared to current ones, but with severe decrease in habitat suitability values for both NICS distributed in Croatia. Further, our results indicated that A. astacus will be more endangered by climate change than by future NICS spreading. In conclusion we may say that conservation of present A. astacus diversity in areas that are predicted as suitable (climate refugia) will require assisted migration/relocation in order to preserve their maximum genetic variability. Our research emphasizes once again the importance of multidisciplinary studies in the modern approach to biodiversity conservation.

invasive species, Faxonius limosus, Pacifastacus leniusculus, Astacus astacus, habitat suitability, climate change, freshwaters

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