engleski

The effect of spatial correlation of sea states on predicted extreme significant wave heights along ship sailing routes

Extreme significant wave heights that ship will encounter are usually predicted using available wave statistics for wave zones where the ship is intended to operate and by assuming that seas states are statistically independent. The aim of the present study is to investigate the effect that spatial correlation between sea states can have on predicted extreme values. The study is based on a database collected for the Adriatic Sea during 24 years of satellite measurements combined with numerical re- analysis. Spearman, Pierson, and Kendall correlation coefficients for seas states along the ship sailing route are determined. The probability of exceeding different significant wave heights along the route is calculated by assuming statistical independence and full correlation respectively. Thus, two bounding probability distributions of extreme significant wave heights for the one-year return period are established. These theoretical distributions are eventually compared with “measured” distributions of yearly extreme significant wave heights along the route, extracted from the database for each of 24 years.

Extreme significant wave height ; spatial correlation ; seas states along the route

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