engleski

Correlation Between Freight Transport Industry and Economic Growth – Panel Analysis of CEE Countries

The paper tests the statistical correlation between employment and value added of the freight transport industry and its components with the overall economy in a ten-year panel from 2008 to 2017 of the thirteen newest member countries of European Union. This paper examines the nature of the correlation between economic growth as the independent variable and freight transport industry as the dependent variable. To achieve stationarity and to eliminate autocorrelation and idiosyncratic effects, the variables are first differenced. The results of the "Granger causality tests" show that the null hypothesis of non- causality can be rejected for most of the conjectures with high F-statistics as well as high statistical significance. The results of the EGLS panel test with cross-sectional fixed effects do not reject the results of the Granger test, and the same is true for the Panel Generalised Method test for first differences of moments. The result of the Arellano-Bond test shows no serial correlation in the residuals. It is concluded that changes in the overall economy (value added and employment) have a significant and measurably strong impact on the freight transportation and warehousing sector. This conclusion is useful in assessing the future impact on the freight transport industry, especially as a result of unforeseen events.

freight transport industry, logistics, economic growth, panel analysis, relationship

nije evidentirano