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Framework for the ISO 52016 standard accuracy prediction based on the in-depth sensitivity analysis

We present here a comprehensive study on the accuracy of ISO 52016-1:2017 standard (the Standard), and provide a novel, widely applicable framework for its assessment. The global sensitivity analysis and predictive modeling have been utilized to explore the intricacies of differences between the Standard and dynamic simulations in TRNSYS. The study includes more than 147 thousand cases with diverse combinations of building characteristics and all international climate zones. The main conclusion is that the Standard has good accuracy in the calculation of heating energy needs, while it is much less accurate in the calculation of cooling energy needs. For climates in which heating is dominant, 100% of cases had acceptable accuracy ; in contrast, only 30–70% of cases in moderate climates had an acceptable accuracy. Consequently, we propose improvements to the Standard, suggesting that considerable benefits could be obtained if the variability of window properties based on the boundary conditions at each time step is implemented. The proposed method results in significant improvements since the number of acceptable cases for cooling in moderate climates has increased to 75– 100%. This has been quantified for a great variety of window properties and for all climates. An online tool has been provided, enabling the estimation of the expected relative difference between the Standard and TRNSYS for a specific building.

ISO 52016 ; Accuracy estimation ; Error prediction ; Sensitivity analysis ; Building energy performance

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