engleski

Can the spread of COVID-19 be approximated with Fibonacci growth sequence?

COVID-19 represents not only a public health emergency but has also caused a global economic crisis. Economic consequences of COVID-19 contagion are detrimental to all economic sectors. In order to investigate and evaluate the spread of COVID-19 disease, in this paper a novel approach for approximation of COVID-19 spread with the Fibonacci growth sequence has been introduced. For that purpose two Fibonacci methods were used. The results of the analysis have shown that Fibonacci method 2 has better forecasting ability but has no satisfactory forecasting ability when applied on a global country level. On the other hand, it has reasonable to good prediction ability when applied to a regional level of separate countries. Limitation of the paper is related to the fact that not all the COVID-19 variables were available for all selected countries. Recommendations for future research in this field can go in the way of lowering the analysis on a city level.The results obtained from this paper can be important for economic and health policy makers and EU potential member countries on consumers and health protection in the light of European Union enlargement process.

COVID-19 ; Fibonacci growth sequence ; MAPE ; European Union

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