engleski

THE FOOD IMPORT – INTERNATIONAL TOURISM NEXUS IN CROATIA: AN APPLICATION OF THE ARLD AND NARDL APPROACH AND CAUSALITY

This study examined the relationship between food import dependency and the international tourist arrivals in Croatia from 1969–2018. For almost two decades before the global covid-19 crisis, Croatia's food imports grew rapidly, and imports appear to be mainly driven by exports of services linkage to pervasive tourism expansion. In this paper, we provide empirical evidence on the above thesis by detecting the causality between foods imports represented as a various product: total food ; bovine meat ; fishing ; dairy ; other kinds of meat ; sugar ; vegetables, fruit and nuts ; vegetables, oils and fats, and international tourism arrivals, that suit as a proxy for tourism consumption. The study method was able to capture symmetries in the relationship, between some food import products and tourism, known as autoregressive-distributed lags (ARDL), but not for all imported food items designed for this study. Since an asymmetric analysis, in such cases, requires the use of nonlinear models (NARDL), we use nonlinear models and find evidence of asymmetric cointegration.

food import, tourism, ARDL, NARDL, causality, Croatia

Rad je rezultat internog istraživačkog projekta Fakulteta ekonomije i turizam pod nazivom "Turistički razvoj i utjecaji na destinaciju".