Epidemiological Predictive Modelling of COVID-19 Spread (CROSBI ID 704587)
Neobjavljeno sudjelovanje sa skupa | neobjavljeni prilog sa skupa | međunarodna recenzija
Podaci o odgovornosti
Šušteršič, Tijana ; Blagojević, Andjela ; Cvetković, Danijela ; Cvetković, Aleksandar ; Lorencin, Ivan ; Baressi Šegota, Sandi ; Car, Zlatan ; Filipović, Nenad
engleski
Epidemiological Predictive Modelling of COVID-19 Spread
Since the outbreak of new coronavirus COVID-19, measures for ending the global pandemic such as social distancing and contact tracing have been proposed worldwide. We propose a SEIRD model to predict the development of epidemic, which can contribute to effective planning to control it. Based on official statistical data for Belgium, we calculated the key parameters and forward them to the epidemiological model which will predict the number of infected, dead and recovered people. SEIRD model is a compartmental epidemiological model with included components - susceptible, exposed, infected (infected group is divided into three groups - mild, severe and critical), recovered, dead. Predicted (simulated) and official curves show a good match, meaning that the model is achieving promising results. A prognostic model could help us predict epidemic peaks. In that way, we could react in a timely manner by introducing new or tightening existing measures before the health system is overloaded.
COVID-19 ; disease spread modelling ; SEIRD model ; epidemiological model
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Podaci o prilogu
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Podaci o skupu
8th International Congress of Serbian Society of Mechanics
predavanje
28.07.2021-30.07.2021
Kragujevac, Srbija