engleski

A framework for uncertainty analysis of flood risk assessment in the near-response phase

Flood risk assessment methods are usually based on measured water level values and vulnerability estimation of an affected area. Choosing adequate structural or non-structural measures for reducing negative impacts of flooding is often difficult due to influence of different uncertainty sources. The aim of this paper is to provide a framework for uncertainty analysis for flood risk assessment in near- response phase, which mostly considers epistemic uncertainties resulting from ambiguity or lack of information. Decision- making in disaster response is complex and it includes choosing between different risk mitigation options. Uncertainty analysis helps to identify flood risk management options that are likely to be robust to uncertainty. This research helps to identify main sources of uncertainties, which can affect risk value at the observed point or section of the river and to minimize information gap between the location where the water level is measured and the endangered area. Sources of uncertainties are identified and determined using system analysis approach and relevant uncertainties are included in the risk assessment model. This approach enables decision-makers, especially at tactical level, to plan disaster response phase more effectively. Adequate information gives support to decision-makers in order to make optimal decisions, which can only be expected when all relevant uncertainties are taken into consideration. Both reliable information and more comprehensive risk analysis are necessary to enhance safety of citizens and improve risk reduction.

flood risk ; uncertainty ; framework ; response

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