engleski

Modeling Tourism Demand in Continental Croatia Using Piecewise Regression Models

Tourism has a significant impact on the Croatian economy, but tourists in most cases visit the coastal area near the Adriatic Sea, while the Continental region has only a small share of tourists. To study the dynamics of the tourism demand in the Continental region of Croatia is the objective of this research. The financial crisis that started in October 2008 lowered tourism demand. Since Croatian tourism is highly seasonal and the peak season is in the 3rd quarter, the crisis reflected a structural break in tourism demand in 2009. Because of the structural break, piecewise time series regression modeling is utilized. What this research has proved is that the dynamic of tourism arrivals and tourism nights in the Continental region of Croatia can be explained by piecewise log-linear/exponential models.

Continental Croatia, exponential trend, piecewise log-linear regression, structural break, tourism demand

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