engleski

Antropological Cybernetic Model of Population Effective Size of the Two Regons of the Island of Hvar

Human populations are complex systems because they are under the influence of natural, social and cultural factors. We investigated human populations through application of cybernetic concepts on the anthropological demography using System Theory. Aim was to apply a cybernetic model LOPI for the modeling of demographic processes of the island of Hvar. We will represent the results for the two regions, eastern and western region. Cybernetic model LOPI have three age compartments where the number of inhabitants is distributed to the three age structures (0 - 20 ; 20 - 45 ; 45 – above years) and one dummy compartment. Computation age structure program (CAS) calculates values for each compartment in a specific period of time on Croatian age structure historical data basis. On the basis of obtained values we calculated flows, reproductive constant and environmental carrying capacity by non-linear fitting. The basic idea of the applied model was that the rate of reproduction is given by non-linear controller: Y2/Te*(1-(Y3/G). The proportional constant 1/Te connected with the pool of reproductive inhabitants (Y2) corresponds to the reproductive maximum. Constant G represents an environmental carrying capacity of community respecting the post-reproductive compartment (Y3). One of the concepts used to understand critical limits of the environment is carrying capacity (G). That concept assumes that there are a finite number of people who can be supported without degrading the natural environment and social, economic and cultural systems. Thus, it is an indirect measure of the maximum level of stress that the system can maintain. The number of inhabitants above 45 years has influence on the reproduction of the community, as the number of elderly is higher, the fertility of the community is reduced. A purpose of this work was to compare the demographic oscillations between eastern and western region, and to estimate the average inbreeding. There is assumption that inbreeding among individuals in the population decreases the variability and the number of heterozygotes, that means increases homozygotes, which could be explained by immigration of coastal population in the eastern region from 15 to 18 century.

anthropology; demography; cybernetic

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