engleski

Agrometorological modeling of cereal yields in the future climate

Agrometeorological modeling has expanded abruptly over the past twenty years and has been recognized as an important source of information formarket stability and forreducing the socio-economic impact of crop loss. Due to the conservation of biodiversity, nowadaysit is imperative not to extend further the agricultural land, but to accomplishthe greatest possible potential that a particular crop can achieve per unit area while retaining its ability to adapt to climate change. The current challenge in agrometeorological modeling isto achieve satisfactory accuracy at the regional level with respect to the input values of the meteorological models. Detailed research on agrometeorological modeling in surrounding countries includes the use of the AquaCrop model. Their research includes the use of climate projections to determine yields of crops, most commonly maize. The results show that in the conditions of increased air temperature up to 2 °C there is a shortening of the vegetation period up to 25 days and a yield reduction of up to 33% in ourregion. According to the simulated values of the DSSAT model, in the period from 1949-2004 to the end of the 21stcentury in the Zagreb area, expected maize harvest is possible by up to one and a half month earlier with a 14-25% reduction in grain yield compared to the present climate conditions if today's maize hybrids and agrotechnical measures aresustained. For the time being, this is the only such research conducted in Croatia.

agrometeorological modeling, climate change, yield reduction

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