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Wildfire risk in Croatia using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System

Weather conditions such as long-lasting dry spells and insolation duration, high values of air temperature and strong wind essentially increase the potential risk of forest fire starting and spreading. All these hazardous factors have been observed on the Croatian Adriatic coast and islands. Therefore, the Adriatic area is the most vulnerable region to wildfires in Croatia. The reasons are the joint effects of weather conditions, easily flammable Mediterranean vegetation (pine forests and Mediterranean shrubs), very steep and inaccessible terrain along the Adriatic coast, which complicates extinguishing the fires and increasing population during the tourist season in summer. Wildfires inflict serious damage to agricultural sites and forests and, in the warm season, often endanger settlements and human lives. Therefore since 1982, the forest fire danger protection programme using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) has been running along the Croatian coastal region by the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ) as part of the Government Programme of Open-Air Fire Prevention. The Canadian model is applied to the fire weather indices (FWI) once a day, from April to October based on real-time meteorological data from 40 synoptic stations using the SYNOP report and predicted for the following day using the products of the ALADIN/HR limited area numerical weather prediction model. Both actual and predicted fire weather indices are sent automatically to the Fire Department each day during the fire season. The actual fire weather indices are also publicly available on the DHMZ web site (http://www.meteo.hr). The mean seasonal severity rating (SSR) is one of the products of the Canadian model, which means potential risk of forest fire. Spatial distribution of SSR in Croatia from July to September in the period 1961–2018 indicates that the absolute maximal value of SSR (28.5) was recorded in the mid-Adriatic in 2017. When SSR is greater than 7, the weather conditions are favourable for the occurrence of large fires. The maximum SSR shows how extreme dry and warm conditions prevailed in the Adriatic area in 2017 that caused about 4, 000 wildfires with the largest burned area of about 90, 000 ha. The comparison of SSR maps between two periods 1981–2010 and 1961–1990 also point out the spreading of high fire risk from the mid-Adriatic to the northern Adriatic, and to the eastern part of Croatia, particularly in July and August, in the last decades. The increase in the fire risk in Croatia is a consequence of climate change.

Fire Weather Index (FWI) ; ALADIN model ; wildfire , Croatia

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