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Propagating Conditions and the Time of ICME Arrival: A Comparison of the Effective Acceleration Model with ENLIL and DBEM Models

The Effective Acceleration Model (EAM) predicts the Time-of-Arrival (ToA) of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) driven shock and the average speed within the sheath at 1 AU. The model is based on the assumption that the ambient solar wind interacts with the interplanetary CME (ICME) resulting in constant acceleration or deceleration. The upgraded version of the model (EAMv3), presented here, incorporates two basic improvements: (i) a new technique for the calculation of the acceleration (or deceleration) of the ICME from the Sun to 1 AU and (ii) a correction for the CME plane-of-sky speed. A validation of the upgraded EAM model is performed via comparisons to predictions from the ensemble version of the Drag- Based model (DBEM) and the WSA-ENLIL+Cone ensemble model. A common sample of 16 CMEs/ICMEs, in 2013 - 2014, is used for the comparison. Basic performance metrics such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean error (ME) and root mean squared error (RMSE) between observed and predicted values of ToA are presented. MAE for EAM model was 8.7 ±1.6 hours while for DBEM and ENLIL was 14.3 ±2.2 and 12.8 ±1.7 hours, respectively. ME for EAM was -1.4 ±2.7 hours in contrast with -9.7 ±3.4 and -6.1 ±3.3 hours from DBEM and ENLIL. We also study the hypothesis of stronger deceleration in the interplanetary (IP) space utilizing the EAMv3 and DBEM models. In particularly, the DBEM model perform better when a greater value of drag parameter, of order of a factor of 3, is used in contrast to previous studies. EAMv3 model shows a deceleration of ICMEs at greater distances, with a mean value of 0.72 AU.

Coronal Mass Ejections ; Interplanetary ; Modeling ; Forecasting ; Initiation and propagation ; Physics - Space Physics

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