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Annual heat demand curve and extension analysis of district heating system

The advancements in district heating systems had led to its significant role in the decarbonization of energy systems through the reduction in the primary energy supply and CO2 emissions. The reductions are achieved with lower cost as compared to other sector coupling alternatives that do not take the utilization of district heating (DH) into account. In addition to that, the integration of power to heat technologies in DH will provide additional flexibility to energy systems with increased capability to integrate high shares of variable renewables. This capability of DH systems can be further increased if they switch to annual operation. Thus, this research considers annual hot water heating demand other than seasonal space heating demand when technically and economically assessing the DH utilization potential. A bottom-up heat demand mapping process was carried out for a large city area in order to identify the space heating demand of buildings and its spatial area distribution in a 250 m * 250 m grid. Furthermore, a new top-down heat demand approach was developed based on the population distribution density grids using different specific consumption of hot water per capita during the four seasons. The total heat demand for space heating and hot water is aggregated in 250 m * 250 m grid and is used for extension analysis of district heating potential and creating annual heat demand profiles on a daily basis. The levelized cost of heat provided by large scale heat pumps, current heat prices and the cost of network extension were taken into account for the calculation of the economic feasibility of the district heating extension. The results obtained have shown a significant increase potential of the evaluated DH system.

District heating ; heat demand mapping ; space heating ; hot water ; GIS ; heat demand profile

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