engleski

The forecast of the 25. Solar cycle with the ARMA model

The forecast of the 25. Solar cycle was made using the ARMA model analysis of the sunspot number and F10.7cm flux. We are currently at the end of 24. solar cycle and 25. solar cycle will start with minimum of the solar activity. We used statistical ARMA(7, 7) model to make forecast, which gives very good results for the trend of the downgoing maximum of the cycles. Reason for this behaviour is the fact that the ARMA is statistic model and statistically there are more downgoing than upgoing trends of maximum of the cycle. The expected solar maximum will ocur in 2024. The upcomming cycle will be similar or a bit smaler than the current one. The ending of the 25. Solar cycle is predicted to be in 2029. The results are compareble with more recent predictions in other papers, which used different methods. This indicates that ARMA is a good and reliable method in space weather analysis.

Solar cycles, predictions, ARMA model

Sažetak je dostupan na:http://www.stce.be/esww2019/program/session_details.php?nr=3#