engleski

Model of dynamics multicriterial evaluation and selection-modes

The choice of the most favourable development scenario is, in essence, reduced to the problem of multi-criteria decision making. Several examples of the most favourable scenarios of future development of complex social-economical systems show that the choice is usually based upon mostly quantitative or extremely subjective criteria. If these quantitatively expressed criteria are used, then, as a rule, the final result of such a scenario, measured at the end of a simulation period, or expressed as an average criteria for the whole simulated period, produces a thoroughly static character for that choice. The basic idea of this paper is that the choice of the most favourable version or scenario should be made based on combined quantitative and qualitative criteria in such a way that current (at every point in time of a simulated future development), dynamic (throughout the simulated future development period of time), and cumulative (in a total simulated period of time) efficiency of a certain version or a certain scenario is taken into account. This is an attempt to ensure that a dynamic component is included in the process of evaluating and choosing the most favourable scenario of a future development of a modulated system. Furthermore, this creates the basis for an additional analysis and a comparison of individual scenarios.

individual scenarios ; multicriterial

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