engleski

Synthesis of basic indicators for public safety in order To prevent and suppress crime in the republic of Croatia

The paper presents the results of the survey of basic safety indicators and results of the work of the Ministry of Interior of the Republic of Croatia in the period from 2004 to 2019 on the basis of publicly available statistical surveys. The subject of the research was the criminal offences for which criminal proceedings are initiated ex officio, in accordance with Titles IX to XXIX of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Croatia. The study sought to determine whether there was a functional link between reported1 and resolved2 criminal offences from 2004 to 2019, but also is there a functional connection between the resolution coefficient of criminal offences and the year the criminal offence appears, what is the nature of this connection (linear or nonlinear) and what is the strength of this connection? The results of the research showed that there is a strong (firm) functional connection, but they also indicated the presence of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity, indicating that evaluations of certain parameters remain unbiased, but are unreliable and inefficient. The authors conclude that such a model is not suitable for predictions, that the regression model has to be transformed and propose the use of the Box- Jenkins residual analysis method, i.e. the WLS regression method (Weighted least squares).

riminal offences, functional connection, regression, security indicators

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