engleski

Natural gas as a geopolitical factor of energy transition

At the end of the second decade of the 21st century humankind is at the turning point: either it will find effective responses to the global challenge of preventing the rapid climate changes, caused by the sources of greenhouse gases resulting from human activities, or the world, as we know it, will disappear. Following the Paris Agreement from 2015, the need for energy transition implementation became indisputable since it has been confirmed that energy transformations and energy use have a significant impact on the climate. In the context of the transition from traditional fossil fuel-based energy system to the new "green energy of the future" security of energy supply has become a dominant issue (in the context of providing both the undisturbed functioning of all society segments and ensuring future economic development). Considering the high energy value of gas, significant installed power of standard gas plants and possibility for very wide utilisation, the increase in gas consumption, in the first decades of carrying out the long-term energy transition process, should be a part of addressing the risk of rapid climate changes to achieve climate stabilization and create a low carbon economy (for example, replacing lignite with gas can decrease the CO2 emissions even up to 66%). The trends in the global gas market are discussed in the paper. Starting from the long-term trends in the global gas production and consumption, recent situation and relevant forecasts for global primary energy consumption, a natural gas potential to become the leading fuel (as regards consumption) in the world by 2050 is presented. In this context, natural gas will be one of the key geopolitical factors in the upcoming energy transition. Furthermore, the importance of strategic gas projects (for the realization of which a large amount of money will be spent) is emphasized, which undoubtedly leads to the conclusion that the “powerful” countries strongly count on the long-term use of natural gas. This fact confirms the axiom that the domination over geostrategic resources implies a global political power, that is, the geopolitical position of the countries with the large proven reserves of natural gas as well as the largest natural gas exporters will strengthen. Special attention was paid to liquefied natural gas since the expected growth in the trade of liquefied natural gas will have a significant influence on the positioning of gas as a global energy source. Furthermore, this paper discusses the decision of the European Investment Bank (EIB) to suspend financing of projects related to fossil fuels (including gas projects) as of the end of 2021, with possible implications on the security of energy supply due to uncertainty caused by replacing a favourable use of gas with something else which is more expensive and uncertain, having in mind the fact that the security of energy supply depends largely on necessary investments. At the end of the paper there is an overview of new natural gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean, and a description of possible impacts on the Republic of Croatia.

energy transition, geopolitical factor, natural gas, security of energy supply, liquefied natural gas, neighbouring countries

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