engleski

Risk assessment method for energy planning scenarios on smart islands

Energy systems with high share of variable renewable energy are more vulnerable to sudden changes in the system operation. This is especially emphasized on small systems such as energy systems on geographical islands. Because of these reasons, there is a need for quantifying risk of energy scenarios of such systems. This paper presents novel risk assessment method for energy planning scenarios on the islands. The method uses graph theory for representation of power system topology. The Poisson distribution is used for calculating the probability of power system element failure that is forming probability vector and linear optimization model for calculating the potential damage caused by outage that is forming damage matrix. Four energy planning scenarios for Unije island are modelled and subjugated to several power system outages resulting with risk vector calculated as product of probability vector and damage matrix. The study also presents a zero risk energy planning scenario for Unije island that is achieved for a system of 0.5 MW photovoltaic plant and 3.16 MWh battery storage system.

Power system risk assessment ; Smart islands ; Graph theory ; Power system optimization ; Energy planning

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