Modeling the Epidemic Outbreak and Dynamics of COVID-19 in Croatia (CROSBI ID 694677)
Prilog sa skupa u zborniku | izvorni znanstveni rad | međunarodna recenzija
Podaci o odgovornosti
Lojić Kapetanović, Ante ; Poljak, Dragan
engleski
Modeling the Epidemic Outbreak and Dynamics of COVID-19 in Croatia
The paper deals with a modeling of the ongoing epidemic caused by Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the closed territory of Republic of Croatia. Using official public information on the number of confirmed infected, recovered and deceased individuals, the modified SEIR compartmental model is developed to describe the underlying dynamics of the epidemic. Fitted modified SEIR model provides the prediction of the disease progression in near future, considering strict control interventions by means of social distancing and quarantine for infected and at-risk individuals introduced at the beginning of COVID-19 spread on February, 25 th by Croatian Ministry of Health. Assuming the accuracy of provided data and satisfactory representativeness of the model used, basic reproduction number is derived. Obtained results portray potential positive developments and justify the stringent precautionary measures introduced by the Ministry of Health.
SARS-CoV-2 ; COVID-19 ; epidemic modeling ; compartmental epidemiology models
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Podaci o prilogu
1-5.
2020.
objavljeno
10.23919/SpliTech49282.2020.9243757
Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji
Health track, SpliTech 2020
Podaci o skupu
5th International Conference on Smart and Sustainable Technologies 2020
predavanje
23.09.2020-26.09.2020
Bol, Hrvatska