engleski

Using Fuzzy Logic in Analysing and Modelling the Reflection of Monetary and Fiscal Conditions on GDP Per Capita in Croatia

In this paper, the monetary conditions are observed through loans to the central government, loans to the local government, loans to non-financial associations, excess liquidity and the primary liquidity rate. The fiscal conditions are observed through total revenue, total expenditure, deficit/surplus, domestic and foreign debt. Modelling of the reflection of thus defined monetary and fiscal conditions on the Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is observed using data from 2002 to 2018. With clustering, the established problem required the creation of 4 independent models. The models were created by using fuzzy logic due to incongruity, class limits and the subsequent uncertainty and truth bias that may have appeared in the established problem. The results of research conducted in this way point that the reflection of monetary and fiscal conditions on GDP per capita should be observed through three individual and one main model. Such approach indicates an interrelationship of individual variables with foreign debt, deficit/surplus, total expenditure and finally GDP per capita. These models can serve the monetary and fiscal authorities in the analysis and modelling of an effective interaction of monetary and fiscal conditions aimed at increasing GDP per capita.

monetary conditions ; fiscal conditions ; GDP per capita ; fuzzy logic

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