engleski

Strengthening Critical Infrastructure Resilience to impacts of Climate Change: EU CIRCLE Approach

Infrastructure plays a vital role in the economic growth, well-being and health of the community, and contributes to the overall socioeconomic development of modern societies. Critical Infrastructure (CI) interdependencies have become increasingly complex and require a 'system of systems' approach to properly assess and understand the nature of impacts resulting in failure and cascading effects on other infrastructures. To minimise such impacts, it is vital to identify risk and vulnerabilities and strengthen the resilience of CI. The EU CIRCLE CI resilience framework, developed as part of the EU's Horizon2020 project, considers how resilience capacities can be defined, measured and then used in developing models of critical infrastructure. This paper aims to present the approach developed for modelling CI resilience with the use of a case study. The paper first introduces resilience framework based on reviews of existing frameworks to identify the suitable components for the proposed systems approach to modelling. It is then validated with stakeholders within the EU CIRCLE project. Finally, an application of the resilience framework is considered through a case study of forest fires affecting power transmission and highway traffic in the South of France under future climate change scenario. The impacts are first considered across four layers proposed in the resilience framework and are further discussed through its application across the five types of resilience capacities- anticipative, absorptive, restorative, coping and adaptive capacities. Framing CI resilience in the five capacities allows us to understand how climate impacts can be mitigated and addressed both in the short and long terms. The case study uses system dynamics to simulate the impact of forest fires on the resilience capacities of the electricity network and the road transportation system. The framework serves as a diagnostic model to determine the existing resilience level of CI and to improve the resilience by making necessary changes to the parameters of the model.

Climate changes, Resilience of Infrastructures, EU CIRCLE Approach

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