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Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 1075507

Resetting the Initial Conditions for Calculating Epidemic Spread: COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy


Bagić Babac, Marina; Mornar, Vedran
Resetting the Initial Conditions for Calculating Epidemic Spread: COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy // IEEE access, 8 (2020), 148021-148030 doi:10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3015923 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)


CROSBI ID: 1075507 Za ispravke kontaktirajte CROSBI podršku putem web obrasca

Naslov
Resetting the Initial Conditions for Calculating Epidemic Spread: COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy

Autori
Bagić Babac, Marina ; Mornar, Vedran

Izvornik
IEEE access (2169-3536) 8 (2020); 148021-148030

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
Epidemic spread ; infection rate ; mathematical model ; SIR ; COVID-19 ; SARS-CoV-2

Sažetak
Confirmed cases of the disease COVID-19 have spread to more than 200 countries and regions of the world within a few months. Although the authorities report the number of new cases on daily basis, there remains a gap between the number of reported cases and actual number of cases in a population. One way to bridge this gap is to gain more in-depth understanding of the disease. In this paper, we have used the recent findings about the clinical courses of inpatients with COVID-19 to reset the initial conditions of the epidemic process in order to estimate more realistic number of cases in the population. By translating the reported cases certain number of days earlier with regard to an average clinical course of the disease, we have obtained much higher number of cases, which suggests that the actual number of infected cases and death rate might have been higher than reported. Based on the outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy, this paper shows an estimate of the number of infected cases based on infection and removal rates from data during the pandemic.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Računarstvo, Interdisciplinarne tehničke znanosti, Integrativna bioetika (prirodne, tehničke, biomedicina i zdravstvo, biotehničke, društvene, humanističke znanosti)

Napomena
European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action CA15109 - European Cooperation for Statistics of Network Data Science (COSTNET)



POVEZANOST RADA


Ustanove
Fakultet elektrotehnike i računarstva, Zagreb

Profili:

Avatar Url Vedran Mornar (autor)

Avatar Url Marina Bagić Babac (autor)

Citiraj ovu publikaciju

Bagić Babac, Marina; Mornar, Vedran
Resetting the Initial Conditions for Calculating Epidemic Spread: COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy // IEEE access, 8 (2020), 148021-148030 doi:10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3015923 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)
Bagić Babac, M. & Mornar, V. (2020) Resetting the Initial Conditions for Calculating Epidemic Spread: COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy. IEEE access, 8, 148021-148030 doi:10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3015923.
@article{article, year = {2020}, pages = {148021-148030}, DOI = {10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3015923}, keywords = {Epidemic spread, infection rate, mathematical model, SIR, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2}, journal = {IEEE access}, doi = {10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3015923}, volume = {8}, issn = {2169-3536}, title = {Resetting the Initial Conditions for Calculating Epidemic Spread: COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy}, keyword = {Epidemic spread, infection rate, mathematical model, SIR, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2} }

Časopis indeksira:


  • Current Contents Connect (CCC)
  • Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC)
    • Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXP)
    • SCI-EXP, SSCI i/ili A&HCI
  • Scopus


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