engleski

From apparent to true – from frequency to distributions (I)

The current COVID-19 pandemic has sparked many questions and re-examinations of the existing epidemiological knowledge. The disease surprised many of those who were trying to make prediction models. Prediction models are extremely important in epidemics since they allow better planning and implementation of epidemiological measures, as well as of activities necessary to reduce the consequences of epidemics. In addition to virulence, ie, the virus’s ability to infect and cause disease in the host, several other factors need to be known if we want to monitor the course of the epidemic and the severity of its con-sequences. One of the most important measures used to describe an epidemic is the prevalence, ie, the proportion of the population that is infected. In practice, a special term, seroprevalence, is used to denote the proportion of the population with antibodies to the pathogen in the serum. In the case of COVID-19, this would be the proportion of the population in which the presence of specific anti-bodies to the SARS- CoV-2 virus was detected by testing.

epidemiological model ; COVID-19 ; prevalence estimation

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