engleski

Hemline Index Theory: empirical analysis with Google data

Ability to predict future trend s is useful in the fashion industry, as it helps to increase competitiveness, reduce costs and contribute to improvements in the whole supply chain management. Hemline Index Theory (HIT) is a theory that the typical hemline of women’s skirts and dresses (hereafter, referred to as “skirts”) can be predicted from economic trends. This research tests the HIT in the Croatian context by using empirical data analysis. Monthly and quarterly women’s skirt data from January 2004 to May 2019 were collected from the Google Trends data via the Google search volume tool. Once the hemline lengths were calculated, they were processed with the annual economic growth data. The robust data analysis via the filtered probability of the recession showed that there is little to no evidence that HIT is valid in Croatia. Thus, the state of the economy cannot be used as a good predictor of future skirt length trends.

fashion trend forecasting ; Google search volume ; Hemline Index Theory

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