Understanding and forecasting of coronal mass ejections (CROSBI ID 692651)
Prilog sa skupa u zborniku | sažetak izlaganja sa skupa | međunarodna recenzija
Podaci o odgovornosti
Mateja Dumbovic, Jingnan Guo, Manuela Temmer, M. Leila Mays, Astrid Veronig, Stephan Heinemann, Karin Dissauer, Stefan Hofmeister, Jasper Halekas, Christian Mostl, Tanja Amerstorfer, Jurgen Hinterreiter, Sasa Banjac, Konstantin Herbst, Yuming Wang, Lukas Holzknecht, Martin Leitner, and Robert F. Wimmer– Schweingruber
engleski
Understanding and forecasting of coronal mass ejections
Forecasting the arrival and impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their associated shocks is one of the key aspects of space weather. In recent years many models have been developed by various research groups aiming to understand and ultimately forecast CME arrival time and/or impact. The models differ based on the input, approach, assumptions and complexity ranging from simple empirical and analytical to complex numerical and machine learning models. However, regardless of the model, forecasting CME arrival and especially impact has proven to be exceedingly challenging. One of the major setbacks is the uncertainty of the CME observational input, which is still substantial despite state-of-the-art remote observational capacities such as high-resolution EUV imagers and stereoscopic observations. Another major setback is the uncertainty in the CME evolution/propagation itself, either due to unrealistic solar wind background, complex interactions or additional evolutionary processes (e.g. deflections, rotations, erosion). These limits will be discussed in the scope of a recent comprehensive combined modelling-observational case study of a complex July 2017 event (Dumbovic et al., 2019, ApJ).
coronal mass ejections, space weather
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Podaci o prilogu
1-1.
2019.
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objavljeno
Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji
Podaci o skupu
16th European Space Weather Week
pozvano predavanje
18.11.2019-22.11.2019
Liège, Belgija