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Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 1071664

Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID- 19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans


COVIDSurg Collaborative
Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID- 19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans // British journal of surgery, 107 (2020), 11; 1440-1449 doi:10.1002/bjs.11746 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)


CROSBI ID: 1071664 Za ispravke kontaktirajte CROSBI podršku putem web obrasca

Naslov
Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID- 19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans

Autori
COVIDSurg Collaborative

Izvornik
British journal of surgery (0007-1323) 107 (2020), 11; 1440-1449

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
SARS‐CoV‐2 ; COVID‐19 ; elective surgery ; cancellation

Sažetak
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19. Methods: A global expert-response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian beta-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case- mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (cancer versus benign surgery), was determined. This case-mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate total cancelled operations. Results: The best estimate was that 28, 404, 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2, 367, 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90.2%, 25, 638, 922/28, 404, 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72.3%. Globally, 81.7% (25, 638, 921/31, 378, 062) of benign surgery, 37.7% (2, 324, 069/6, 162, 311) of cancer surgery, and 25.4% (441, 611/1, 735, 483) of elective Caesarean sections would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increase their normal surgical volume by 20% post-pandemic, it would take a median 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption. Conclusions A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed due to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to safely restore surgical activity.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Biotehnologija u biomedicini (prirodno područje, biomedicina i zdravstvo, biotehničko područje)

Napomena
COVIDSurg Collaborative / EUSOS Site
Investigators (*means Local lead Investigator):
Croatia: National Co-ordinators: Tatjana
Goranović, Branka Mazul-Sunko (University
Hospital Sveti Duh Zagreb). Akromion Special
Hospital for Orthopaedic Surgery: Krapinske
Toplice, Krešimir Oremuš*. University Hospital
Dubrava Zagreb: Gabrijela Bešlić, Viktor
Duzel*, Ada Hauptman, Sanja Peremin, Andrej
Šribar, Miroslav Župčić. General Hospital Dr
Josip Benčević: Slavonski Brod, Ivan Mirković*.
General Hospital Karlovac: Zlata Šarić Bauer,
Matija Belavić, Božidar Blažanin, Mirjana
Lončarić Katušin, Antonija Brozović Krijan,
Petar Mišković, Nataša Šimić-Korać, Jasna
Topić, Antonio Žilić*, Josip Žunić University
Hospital Merkur Zagreb: Ivana Acan, Mirta
Adanić, Nikola Ivanov, Jadranka Pavičić Šarić*,
Katarina Tomulić, Nataša Visković. University
Hospital Center Osijek: Silvana Bošnjak, Ivana
Haršanji Drenjančevic*, Gordana Kristek,
Slavica Kvolik, Stela Markić, Andreja
Stojanovic Rakipovic, Ozana Katarina Tot,
Darija Venzera- Azenic. General Hospital Pula:
Lada Kalagac Fabris*. University Clinical
Center Rebro Zagreb: Iva Bačak-Kocman*, Igor
Balenović, Daniela Bandić, Patricia Adrianne
Judith Deutsch, Loredana Divjak, Ina Grčić
Filipović, Zvonka Gužvinec, Zrinka Krznarić,
Yvonne Lončarić, Jelena Vadlja Magaš, Marek
Mitrović, Marija Okić, Mario Pavlek, Elza
Ramov, Karolina Rezek, Ante Sekulić, Boris
Tomasevic, Mirjana Mirić, Anita Tomašević, Tina
Tomić Mahečić, Vilena Vrbanović. Clinical
Hospital Centre Rijeka: Mirna Bobinac, Alfred
Božić*, Danijela Debelic, Vedran Frkovic.
University Hospital Center Sestre Milosrdnice:
Inga Mladić Batinica, Senka Baranović, Željka
Gavranović*, Mirna Kikec, Branka Maldini, Stela
Marić. University Hospital Split: Ivan Agnić,
Nikola Delić, Nataša Dropulić, Toni Kljaković
Gašpić, Darko Ilić, Božena Ivančev, Nenad
Karanović*, Dorjan Kuščević, Zlatko Marović,
Matija Milić, Ana Nevešćanin, Tatjana Petković,
Mario Smoje. University Hospital Sveti Duh
Zagreb: Gordana Brozović, Tatjana Goranović,
Milana Jelisavac, Martina Matolić, Branka
Mazul- Sunko*, Dagmar Oberhofer, Ana Marija
Pavičić, Kata Šakić. General Hospital Varaždin:
Margarita Delija Bozovic, Zvjezdana Kotorac
Krecek, Renata Krobot*. General Hospital Zadar:
Tatjana Andabaka, Mislav Bratanić, Orjana
Dzepina, Martina Kraljev, Julija Šeric, Tatjana
Šimurina*. General Hospital OB Hrvatski Ponos,
Knin: Rosa Grujić, Biljana Nacevski-Bulaja*.
General Hosptial Šibenik: Mirna Barižon,
Vrančić Danira, Bulaja Dražen, Kimer Dušanka,
Marijana Bašić Halužan, Žaja Joško, Roca
Katica, Magda Labor, Tea Grgurević Marinković,
Danči Mihovilčević, Bego Marija, Marinković
Srečko, Srđan Vranković*.



POVEZANOST RADA


Ustanove:
Medicinski fakultet, Rijeka,
Klinički bolnički centar Osijek,
Klinička bolnica "Sveti Duh",
KBC "Sestre Milosrdnice",
KBC Split,
Opća bolnica Varaždin,
Opća bolnica Pula,
Opća bolnica Šibenik,
Opća bolnica "Dr. Josip Benčević",
Klinička bolnica "Dubrava",
Klinički bolnički centar Zagreb,
Medicinski fakultet, Osijek,
Klinički bolnički centar Rijeka,
Opća bolnica Karlovac,
Sveučilište u Zadru,
Sveučilište u Rijeci,
Sveučilište J. J. Strossmayera u Osijeku,
Opća bolnica Zadar

Poveznice na cjeloviti tekst rada:

doi bjssjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com doi.org

Citiraj ovu publikaciju:

COVIDSurg Collaborative
Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID- 19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans // British journal of surgery, 107 (2020), 11; 1440-1449 doi:10.1002/bjs.11746 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)
COVIDSurg Collaborative (2020) Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID- 19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans. British journal of surgery, 107 (11), 1440-1449 doi:10.1002/bjs.11746.
@article{article, year = {2020}, pages = {1440-1449}, DOI = {10.1002/bjs.11746}, keywords = {SARS‐CoV‐2, COVID‐19, elective surgery, cancellation}, journal = {British journal of surgery}, doi = {10.1002/bjs.11746}, volume = {107}, number = {11}, issn = {0007-1323}, title = {Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID- 19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans}, keyword = {SARS‐CoV‐2, COVID‐19, elective surgery, cancellation} }
@article{article, year = {2020}, pages = {1440-1449}, DOI = {10.1002/bjs.11746}, keywords = {SARS‐CoV‐2, COVID‐19, elective surgery, cancellation}, journal = {British journal of surgery}, doi = {10.1002/bjs.11746}, volume = {107}, number = {11}, issn = {0007-1323}, title = {Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID- 19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans}, keyword = {SARS‐CoV‐2, COVID‐19, elective surgery, cancellation} }

Časopis indeksira:


  • Current Contents Connect (CCC)
  • Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC)
    • Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXP)
    • SCI-EXP, SSCI i/ili A&HCI
  • Scopus
  • MEDLINE


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