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Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 1071664

Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID- 19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans


COVIDSurg Collaborative
Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID- 19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans // British journal of surgery (2020) doi:10.1002/bjs.11746 (znanstveni, prihvaćen)


CROSBI ID: 1071664 Za ispravke kontaktirajte CROSBI podršku putem web obrasca

Naslov
Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID- 19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans

Autori
COVIDSurg Collaborative

Vrsta, podvrsta
Radovi u časopisima, znanstveni

Izvornik
British journal of surgery (2020)

Status rada
Prihvaćen

Ključne riječi
SARS‐CoV‐2 ; COVID‐19 ; elective surgery ; cancellation

Sažetak
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19. Methods: A global expert-response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian beta-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case- mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (cancer versus benign surgery), was determined. This case-mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate total cancelled operations. Results: The best estimate was that 28, 404, 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2, 367, 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90.2%, 25, 638, 922/28, 404, 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72.3%. Globally, 81.7% (25, 638, 921/31, 378, 062) of benign surgery, 37.7% (2, 324, 069/6, 162, 311) of cancer surgery, and 25.4% (441, 611/1, 735, 483) of elective Caesarean sections would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increase their normal surgical volume by 20% post-pandemic, it would take a median 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption. Conclusions A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed due to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to safely restore surgical activity.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Biotehnologija u biomedicini (prirodno područje, biomedicina i zdravstvo, biotehničko područje)

Napomena
COVIDSurg Collaborative / EUSOS Site Investigators (*means Local lead Investigator): Croatia: National Co-ordinators: Tatjana Goranović, Branka Mazul-Sunko (University Hospital Sveti Duh Zagreb). Akromion Special Hospital for Orthopaedic Surgery: Krapinske Toplice, Krešimir Oremuš*. University Hospital Dubrava Zagreb: Gabrijela Bešlić, Viktor Duzel*, Ada Hauptman, Sanja Peremin, Andrej Šribar, Miroslav Župčić. General Hospital Dr Josip Benčević: Slavonski Brod, Ivan Mirković*. General Hospital Karlovac: Zlata Šarić Bauer, Matija Belavić, Božidar Blažanin, Mirjana Lončarić Katušin, Antonija Brozović Krijan, Petar Mišković, Nataša Šimić-Korać, Jasna Topić, Antonio Žilić*, Josip Žunić University Hospital Merkur Zagreb: Ivana Acan, Mirta Adanić, Nikola Ivanov, Jadranka Pavičić Šarić*, Katarina Tomulić, Nataša Visković. University Hospital Center Osijek: Silvana Bošnjak, Ivana Haršanji Drenjančevic*, Gordana Kristek, Slavica Kvolik, Stela Markić, Andreja Stojanovic Rakipovic, Ozana Katarina Tot, Darija Venzera- Azenic. General Hospital Pula: Lada Kalagac Fabris*. University Clinical Center Rebro Zagreb: Iva Bačak-Kocman*, Igor Balenović, Daniela Bandić, Patricia Adrianne Judith Deutsch, Loredana Divjak, Ina Grčić Filipović, Zvonka Gužvinec, Zrinka Krznarić, Yvonne Lončarić, Jelena Vadlja Magaš, Marek Mitrović, Marija Okić, Mario Pavlek, Elza Ramov, Karolina Rezek, Ante Sekulić, Boris Tomasevic, Mirjana Mirić, Anita Tomašević, Tina Tomić Mahečić, Vilena Vrbanović. Clinical Hospital Centre Rijeka: Mirna Bobinac, Alfred Božić*, Danijela Debelic, Vedran Frkovic. University Hospital Center Sestre Milosrdnice: Inga Mladić Batinica, Senka Baranović, Željka Gavranović*, Mirna Kikec, Branka Maldini, Stela Marić. University Hospital Split: Ivan Agnić, Nikola Delić, Nataša Dropulić, Toni Kljaković Gašpić, Darko Ilić, Božena Ivančev, Nenad Karanović*, Dorjan Kuščević, Zlatko Marović, Matija Milić, Ana Nevešćanin, Tatjana Petković, Mario Smoje. University Hospital Sveti Duh Zagreb: Gordana Brozović, Tatjana Goranović, Milana Jelisavac, Martina Matolić, Branka Mazul- Sunko*, Dagmar Oberhofer, Ana Marija Pavičić, Kata Šakić. General Hospital Varaždin: Margarita Delija Bozovic, Zvjezdana Kotorac Krecek, Renata Krobot*. General Hospital Zadar: Tatjana Andabaka, Mislav Bratanić, Orjana Dzepina, Martina Kraljev, Julija Šeric, Tatjana Šimurina*. General Hospital OB Hrvatski Ponos, Knin: Rosa Grujić, Biljana Nacevski-Bulaja*. General Hosptial Šibenik: Mirna Barižon, Vrančić Danira, Bulaja Dražen, Kimer Dušanka, Marijana Bašić Halužan, Žaja Joško, Roca Katica, Magda Labor, Tea Grgurević Marinković, Danči Mihovilčević, Bego Marija, Marinković Srečko, Srđan Vranković*.



POVEZANOST RADA


Ustanove
Medicinski fakultet, Rijeka,
Opća bolnica Zadar,
Klinički bolnički centar Osijek,
Klinička bolnica "Sveti Duh",
KBC "Sestre Milosrdnice",
KBC Split,
Opća bolnica Varaždin,
Opća bolnica Pula,
Opća bolnica Šibenik,
Opća bolnica "Dr. Josip Benčević",
Klinička bolnica "Dubrava",
Klinički bolnički centar Zagreb,
Medicinski fakultet, Osijek,
Klinički bolnički centar Rijeka,
Opća bolnica Karlovac,
Sveučilište u Zadru,
Sveučilište u Rijeci,
Sveučilište J. J. Strossmayera u Osijeku

Citiraj ovu publikaciju

COVIDSurg Collaborative
Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID- 19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans // British journal of surgery (2020) doi:10.1002/bjs.11746 (znanstveni, prihvaćen)
COVIDSurg Collaborative (2020) Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID- 19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans. Prihvaćen za objavljivanje u British journal of surgery. [Preprint] doi:10.1002/bjs.11746.
@unknown{unknown, year = {2020}, DOI = {10.1002/bjs.11746}, keywords = {SARS‐CoV‐2, COVID‐19, elective surgery, cancellation}, journal = {British journal of surgery}, doi = {10.1002/bjs.11746}, title = {Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID- 19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans}, keyword = {SARS‐CoV‐2, COVID‐19, elective surgery, cancellation} }

Časopis indeksira:


  • Current Contents Connect (CCC)
  • Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC)
    • Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXP)
    • SCI-EXP, SSCI i/ili A&HCI
  • Scopus
  • MEDLINE


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