engleski

Does high population density catalyze the spread of COVID-19?

We are living in turbulent times. The spread of COVID-19 disease has affected all aspects of our life but the most important is to prevent human suffering and save lives. COVID-19 represents not only public health emergency but has become a global economic problem. It has affected all economic sectors threatening global poverty. The sectors that have been hardest hit with the global pandemics are sports and entertainment industry, travel industry, hospitality industry, oil industry and financial markets and others. The important question that arises is what catalyses the spread of the disease? In this paper the relationship between population density and spread of COVID-19 is observed which is goal of the paper. For the purpose of the analysis the correlation between the population variables (population and population density) and COVID-19 variables (total cases, deaths and total tests) on a global country level (209 countries) and regional level of individual countries with the most cases of infection (the United States of America, Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the United Kingdom) is observed. In addition, the case of Croatia will be also analysed. The results have shown that on a country level variable population is statistically significant in all regression models for total cases, deaths and total tests variables whereas variable population density was not. This conclusion was also valid when the USA states, Spain and German regions were observed. On the other side, in the case of Italian, French and United Kingdom’s regions the results have shown that, not only variable population, but variable population density is statistically significant in all regression models meaning that the disease will spread faster in a more populated countries or areas. Limitations of the paper are related to unavailability of data for all COVID-19 variables for some countries. The research results from this paper can be important and relevant for economic and health policy makers to guide Covid-19 surveillance and public health decision-making.

population density ; spread of the disease ; COVID-19 ; World ; Croatia

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