engleski

“Normal” growth of the Chinese economy: new metrics based on consumer confidence data

The past three decades of remarkable Chinese economic development have triggered a noteworthy poverty reduction and the empowerment of Chinese consumers. However, the existing literature has been quite silent on Chinese economic sentiment and the way consumers perceive their economy as a whole. We build on that by focusing on consumer confidence data to propose an indicator of normal long-term growth for the Chinese economy. We note a significant decoupling of the stated indicator and the official GDP figures after the global financial crisis, implying that the Chinese economy is on a sub-optimal trajectory. Our findings support the middle- income trap hypothesis for the Chinese economy.

Consumer confidence ; global financial crisis ; China ; normal growth ; middle-income trap

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