Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 Infection Using a Multilayer Perceptron (CROSBI ID 279133)
Prilog u časopisu | izvorni znanstveni rad | međunarodna recenzija
Podaci o odgovornosti
Car, Zlatan ; Baressi Šegota, Sandi ; Anđelić, Nikola ; Lorencin, Ivan ; Mrzljak, Vedran
engleski
Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 Infection Using a Multilayer Perceptron
Coronavirus (COVID-19) is a highly infectious disease that has captured the attention of the worldwide public. Modeling of such diseases can be extremely important in the prediction of their impact. While classic, statistical, modeling can provide satisfactory models, it can also fail to comprehend the intricacies contained within the data. In this paper, authors use a publicly available dataset, containing information on infected, recovered, and deceased patients in 406 locations over 51 days (22nd January 2020 to 12th March 2020). This dataset, intended to be a time-series dataset, is transformed into a regression dataset and used in training a multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network (ANN). The aim of training is to achieve a worldwide model of the maximal number of patients across all locations in each time unit. Hyperparameters of the MLP are varied using a grid search algorithm, with a total of 5376 hyperparameter combinations. Using those combinations, a total of 48384 ANNs are trained (16128 for each patient group—deceased, recovered, and infected), and each model is evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2). Cross-validation is performed using K-fold algorithm with 5-folds. Best models achieved consists of 4 hidden layers with 4 neurons in each of those layers, and use a ReLU activation function, with R2 scores of 0.98599 for confirmed, 0.99429 for deceased, and 0.97941 for recovered patient models. When cross- validation is performed, these scores drop to 0.94 for confirmed, 0.781 for recovered, and 0.986 for deceased patient models, showing high robustness of the deceased patient model, good robustness for confirmed, and low robustness for recovered patient model.
artificial intelligence ; COVID-19 ; infection spread modeling ; machine learning ; multilayer perceptron
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Podaci o izdanju
2020
2020.
5714714
10
objavljeno
1748-670X
1748-6718
10.1155/2020/5714714
Trošak objave rada u otvorenom pristupu
Povezanost rada
Elektrotehnika, Računarstvo, Temeljne medicinske znanosti, Temeljne tehničke znanosti