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Selection of input parameters and methods for natural gas consumption forecast and the impact of smart meters on forecasting methods

Consumption of natural gas globally has been steadily increasing for over half a century and a further upward trend can be expected until at least 2030. In the European Union, natural gas consumption is directly influenced by economic trends, i.e. economic development and energy consumption are directly related to each other to some extent. In the context of low-carbon energy development, natural gas was recognized as a transition fuel with a share of 22.6% in final energy consumption in 2017. In 2017 domestic production met only 25.9% of domestic consumption so therefore gas supply mostly depends on gas imports on daily basis. Dynamic changes in the gas market also lead to changes in the structure of the market, primarily supply and consumption, but also trade and prices of natural gas, whether it is gas coming from production, pipeline imports, LNG or storage withdrawals. Investment decisions in the gas market were originally linked to complex gas infrastructure systems for gas transportation, storage and distribution. In order to plan as much as possible (trading, supply, transport, storage and distribution of gas), it is necessary to have reliable forecast of natural gas consumption. This paper researches the optimum number, as well as the selection of factors that influence natural gas consumption in conjunction with historical matching. Beside before mentioned, this paper also researches selection of multiple already available forecasting methods, along with the effect of remote metering and district heating on forecasting methods. By optimizing natural gas consumption forecasts, significant energy savings and decrease of GHG emissions can be achieved that contribute to the objectives of EU strategic documents.

gas consumption ; forecasting methods ; forecasting parameters ; smart metering ; district heating ; energy saving

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