engleski

Joint dynamics of Monetization, Financial Development, Public Debt and Unemployment in Croatia - Contemporary approach

Abstract The modern concepts of contemplating joint dynamics of monetary policy effects on economic growth and its indicators require an indirect approach based on empirical research of mainly financial infrastructure, competitiveness of the financial markets and current economic conditions. Meanwhile, the problems of unemployment and the structure of employment within these concepts are most frequently tied with the polarization of the labor market in two important segments, that is, the effects of growth on unemployment and the fact that technological changes affect the changes in salary ranges. Using the set of data from 1995 to 2016 this paper analyzes these issues through a prism of established balances between the labor and financial markets, i.e. the monetization of economy (M1/GDP), financial development (Loans/GDP) and the share of gross government debt in GDP (government gross debt/GDP). By using the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), the proposed model suggests that the rate of unemployment is conditioned by the financial cycle and monetary policy (M1/GDP, Loans/GDP), as well as the business cycle and fiscal policy (gross d/BDP) and that a controlled and properly directed level of monetization of economy (M1/BDP) and financial development measured as Loans/GDP can be "sufficient" for economic growth.

monetization of economy, financial development, structural problems of unemployment, ANFIS

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