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Does Immigration Weaken Support for the Welfare State? Evidence from European Regional Data

With increased immigration, West European societies are beginning to approach American levels of diversity. In this new setting, can the welfare state maintain enough legitimacy with its native majority? Or does immigration weaken public support for the welfare state? So far, scholarship has been inconclusive, necessitating further research. This article employs a multi-level analysis data from the 2016 round of the European Social Survey in order to investigate the link between regional levels of immigration and support for the welfare state. By lowering the level of analysis from the national level to the regional, it may be possible to get closer to how people actually experience immigration. The analysis finds that a statistically significant negative relationship does indeed exist for two out of three dependent variables. Therefore, immigration does weaken public support for the welfare state. Yet, the size of the effect should not be overblown. Other variables in the analysis have much more of an impact on attitudes. Therefore, its seems warranted to shy away from doomsday scenarios. Immigration does not signal the death knell for the welfare state. It may simply tilt the playing field, but does not determine the path European welfare states take.

Immigration ; welfare state ; EU regions

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