engleski

Climate change impacts on viticulture in Croatia ; viticultural zoning and future potential

Since changes in temperature and precipitation have different effects on (i) all developmental stages of grapevines in most of the wine regions worldwide (i.e., on their phenological characteristics) and (ii) different varieties, a comprehensive database of bioclimatic indices has been calculated and analyzed for Croatian wine producing regions. The database consists of theaverage growing season temperature, Growing degree-days, Huglin index, Dryness index, and Cool night index that are based on all available meteorological measurements as well as the outputs of regional climate models (RCMs) from the EURO-CORDEX database. The horizontal grid spacing of 0.11° from the RCM ensembles enabled a fine-scale determination of bioclimatic indices for the present and future climate in Croatia. In addition, statistical analyses (standard statistical parameters and Bayesian method) were done to examine trends in sugar content, total acidity and date of harvest. Calculations were performed for the present and future climate on the basis of data from seven selected vineyards/wineries and four varieties (‘ Graševina’, ‘Plavac mali’, ‘Chardonnay’, and ‘Merlot’). The results show whether the part of Croatia that is suitable for grape cultivation in the present climate will continue to be favorable in the future within the Mediterranean area. In general, projections suggest further warming and drying of the climate in Croatia and an earlier harvest, with some variations among varieties that show latitude dependence. Projections for the future climate also suggest that the existing viticultural zoningwill be much less adequate for the Croatian territory because it reduces the economically sustainable production of wine in certain areas.

Climate change ; Regional climate models ; Bioclimatic indices ; viticulture ; Croatia

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