engleski

To leave or not to leave Croatia: The correlates of intentions to move abroad

Croatia is a country with a long history of great migratory movements. Having joined the EU in 2013, Croatia began to experience yet another wave of mass out-ward migration. Theories offer numerous explanations of why people migrate internationally, and empirical studies point to many similarities in factors that influence individual intentions and actual decisions to move abroad. This paper investigates intentions to emigrate from Croatia among younger adults (ages 18 to 49). How many people intend to leave Croatia? How strong are their intentions? How do intended “stayers” differ from intended “leavers”, and who is most likely to express a strong positive intention to move abroad? To address these questions, we employ data from the 2018 GGP experimental pilot study, and we estimate logistic regression models to assess how sociodemographic variables, economic indicators, and expected benefits of emigration associate with various degrees of intentions to move abroad. As a post-socialist country with a strong social network abroad and below-average economic standing within the EU, Croatia makes a very interesting case study. We conclude our paper with a discussion on strengths and weaknesses of using the GGS data in analysing intent to migrate.

emigration intentions, GGP experimental pilot study, Croatia

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