engleski

ANALYSIS OF SEASONALITY - INBOUND TOURIST DEMAND IN CROATIA

Tourism, as Croatia’s largest industry, plays a crucial role in the economic development, but a major problem in the development of this crucial activity is seasonality. Seasonality has become one of the most distinctive and determinative features of global tourism industry, caused by mainly natural and institutional factors, implying numerous economical, employment, environmental and social problems. The research is focused on analysing the structure of seasonality in inbound tourist demand, due to their contribution to overall arrivals and overnight stays, in Adriatic Croatia, Croatia’s leading receiving touristic area. Seasonal fluctuations are analysed using seasonality ratio, identifying monthly deviations from annual average and Lorenz curve, identifying seasonal concentration of tourist flows. Annual data on arrivals and overnight stays is used from Croatian Bureau of Statistics. Seasonality of demand is examined in terms of county, nationality and organization of tourist arrivals to identify differences in seasonal structure between counties, between generating markets and market segments. Research results indicate extreme seasonality in observed counties of Adriatic Croatia with high concentration of tourist demand in peak season. Croatia’s leading generating markets are primary concentrated on arrivals and overnight stays in peak season months, whereby only Germany, France and Austria tend to have an extended summer season. Tourists arriving by individual arrangement have a higher degree of seasonality comparing to organized trips. The obtained data confirms Croatia’s position as sun, sand and sea destination. Actions need to be done by public and private sector to examine solutions to mitigate seasonal pattern in Croatian tourism. The research paper represents first effort to analyse monthly seasonal fluctuations and annual concentration of inbound tourist demand in region of Adriatic Croatia. Used methodology and approach are identifying, so far undetermined, differences between the seasonal structures of counties, nationality of generating markets and organization of tourist arrivals. Findings are a guide the further development of Croatian tourism, which is characterised by extreme seasonality.

seasonality, inbound tourist demand, Adriatic Croatia, seasonality ratio, Lorenz curve

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