engleski

The impact of personal remittances from abroad on the Croatian economy

The dynamics of the population of Croatia in history was influenced by many adverse factors that contributed to a significantly slower development of the Croatian society and economy. The demographic implications of such movements, which are reflected in reduced fertility and in the additional worsening of age-sex structure, have already been explored in domestic literature and domestic demographers. From the economic consequences of research, greater emphasis has been put on the unsustainability of the pension system in the future. Although the changes in the age structure suggest a decrease in the labor contingency that would be manifested in the future in the lack of labor force, it is already felt in certain activities. Nonetheless, the restrictive effect of such demographic trends (mostly derived from emigration) on economic growth is rarely spoken. However, consideration of the economic consequences of emigration must also take into account the impact of remittances from abroad, whose level the CNB estimated at around 3-4% of GDP over the majority of analyzed period. However, Croatia’s entry into the EU in 2013 opened the labor markets of most EU members for Croatian citizens, leading to a new emigration wave. These migration trends have intensified the pace of remittances, which made above 4% of the GDP from 2015 to 2017. But their share in reality, due to coverage problems, may be higher. The relatively high inflow of remittances to Croatia has encouraged us to investigate their impact on the growth of the Croatian economy. Similar surveys abroad do not give an unambiguous answer. Many researches show a positive or conditional positive relationship, but there are also those whose influence on economic growth is insignificant or even negative. The results of our research exclude the long-term link between remittances and economic growth and the short-term positive effects are limited only to the crisis and the post-crisis period.

remittances ; emigration ; GDP and GDP growth ; regression analysis

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