engleski

Some properties of inflation expectations in the euro area

This paper assesses the euro area inflation expectations by examining five different survey‐ based expectations indicators. The Survey of Professional Forecasters outperforms all other expectations indicators in terms of forecasting accuracy. We test the unbiasedness and efficiency of these indicators by viewing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) from a time‐varying perspective in a state space framework. Our model shows that the deviations from expectations' unbiasedness and efficiency are the most pronounced in the global financial crisis. Additionally, we offer evidence that the adaptive expectations and regressive expectations models are considerably more in line with actual data than REH.

expected inflation ; rational expectations ; Consumer Surveys ; Survey of Professional Forecasters ; time-varying parameters model

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