engleski

Towards exploring bullwhip effects in natural gas supply chain

Background: Bullwhip (or Forrester) effect is well studied phenomenon in many supply chains where small variations in customer demand have a tendency to become larger and larger when created by upstream members of the supply chain resulting in unneeded increasing in upstream inventory. However, there is substantial deficiency of scientific research on bullwhip effect in natural gas supply chain. Due to relatively smaller number of supply chain members and huge volumes flowing through the natural gas supply chain, benefits of decreasing or even eliminating negative consequences of bullwhip effect could be enormous. This paper aims to provide more insights in reasons for the occurrence, nature and consequences of bullwhip effect by measuring and analysing it in natural gas supply chain of Republic of Croatia. Methods: After observation of orders and consumption from natural gas supplier, comparisons were made on monthly and yearly level. Well known and accepted metrics were used to calculate existence of bullwhip effect. Results: Results didn’t show existence of bullwhip effect on lowest level of natural gas supply chain what is in accordance with other researches. Best solution for mitigating potential or real bullwhip effect are information sharing while working on joint demand forecast in supply chain and use of newer forecasting method. Conclusion: Expected results should contribute to better understanding of bullwhip phenomenon in natural gas supply chain, but also provide possible avoiding strategies based on building trust in supply chain and on appropriate use of information and communication technologies.

natural gas ; bullwhip effect ; supply chain ; information distortion

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