engleski

Development trends in the number of postal parcels in the Republic of Croatia

In the last couple of years, the Republic of Croatia has witnessed a growth in the number of postal parcels. In this paper, by applying quantitative methods, we perform the decomposition of a time series, where the development of the number of parcels is decomposed into the part which refers to the influence of the season and the part which refers to the irregular component, i.e. the unexplained part. We also perform an estimate of the developments of the number of parcels until 2025 by using the exponential trend, where the developments of the parcel number variable are estimated without the influence of the season. The research has established the influence of the season, where highest parcel traffic is achieved in the fourth quarters. By applying the exponential trend model, it has been established that in every following period, a growth in the number of parcels by 2.75% is to be expected.

postal parcels ; influence of the season ; exponential trend model

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