engleski

WHICH TRAITS CAN INDUCE VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE? AN APPROACH USING DISTRIBUTION PREDICTIONS FOR DRUSINAE (TRICHOPTERA) UNDER FUTURE SCENARIOS

The Drusinae subfamily comprises about 100 species distributed across Europe. Some species are widespread and common, while others are restricted to one of several regional centers of endemism, such as the Alps or the Balkan Highlands. Because they inhabit predominantly montane habitats, the Drusinae are regarded as particularly susceptible to changes in climate. This makes this large, running-water taxon an interesting group to assess climate change vulnerability through species distribution models (SDMs). We collated a dataset summarizing the distribution of 47 of the better investigated species, to project them according to four different future climate scenarios and based on 5 different global climate models. We then analyzed predicted future distribution patterns with regard to ecological characteristics as expressed by three ecological traits: larval feeding guild, stream zonation preference and level of endemism. We identified stream zonation preference, a non-phylogenetic trait, as an indicator of climate change vulnerability, as it was related to significant losses of predicted range, as well as altitudinal and centroid shifts in spring-dwelling species. Drusinae species with this trait are more numerous South of the Alps, specifically in the Balkan Peninsula. Our results underline the importance of continuous monitoring at the species level and highlight the need to draw the attention of freshwater scientists and conservation initiatives towards springs and low order streams. Further, many of the European biodiversity hotspots still require intense research efforts, such as the Balkan region, particularly in the context of environmental change.

distribution modelling, stenotherm endemics, climate change

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