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Vulnerability assessment and mapping in relation to climate change - Kupa River catchment

Certain water quantity and quality related issues, which might subsequently arise due to irregular spatial distribution of water resources, can be further amplified in case of increased weather extremes and inadequate land use. The irregularity stems from specific and complex hydrogeological structures whose unique example is the Kupa River catchment area that can be divided in two diverse parts – alluvial and karstic. Alluvial area is characterized by intergranular porosity and groundwater flow through layers of variable thickness and composition. As opposed to alluvial area, karst is characterized by fracture-cavernous porosity and fast groundwater flow along preferential paths, low retention capacity, infiltration and discharge of water within the same groundwater body and high intrinsic vulnerability of aquifers due to lack of overlaying layers. The Kupa River catchment area is not only faced with adverse seasonal flood impacts but also inadequate land-use practices, which the population is not inclined to change. This coupled with hydrotechnical objects, which have strongly modified hydrological system and water regime, make water resources protection and flood mitigation even more challenging. Given the catchment’s transboundary character, achieving synergy between water management goals, spatial and economic growth while adapting them to climate change is one of Croatia’s sustainable development priorities, but also part of transnational efforts encompassed within CAMARO-D project (Danube Transnational Programme). As site specific best management practices implemented through the project’s lifetime, direct pilot area activities were hydrogeological field investigations, vulnerability mapping of Kupa River catchment area and climate change modelling (Turc (1954) and Langbein (1962) empirical models). A comprehensive vulnerability assessment was carried out with the help of GIS tools, by compiling and overlapping layers of natural (intrinsic) vulnerability and potential hazards of anthropogenic origin. The vulnerability and hazard assessment were based on good practices of previously renowned methods, esp. recommendations of European COST 620 project. As protection against floods is one of the main CAMARO-D objectives, hazard map was further overlapped with flood risk map. In addition, hydrological modelling of possible impacts of climate change on water resources was carried out. Correlation and comparison of measured (historical 1961-1990 and recent 1981- 2010) and modelled data for 30 year reference period (2041-2070) pointed out how hydrological regime of the Kupa River catchment is going to experience decreased discharge, more frequent extreme events and significant increase in temperature. Overall results were introduced to relevant decision makers and practitioners in the form of a catalogue of measures targeted at raising awareness and encouraging their involvement on a local, regional and national level.

vulnerability assessment ; GIS ; karst ; climate change ; Kupa ; CAMARO-D

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