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Al Qaeda's Network and its future in Africa

African weak central governments, undeveloped security sectors and continuing dissemination of ethnic, religious and other conflicts created fertile ground for development and strengthening of militant Islamist groups’ influence in the Sahel and North Africa. Inspired by al-Qaeda’s ideology, they have gained the new momentum through the formation of the formal alliances and the integration to the global jihad movement. Having in mind the geo-strategic importance of Africa, there are increasing estimates that the strengthening of the militant Islamism in Africa will additionally empower al-Qaeda and transform the continent into a new terrorist safe haven. Contrary to these assessments, this paper questions the long-term tenability of such strategies, based on the analysis of the root causes of the instability and weaknesses of the African state structures, as well as the local reasons that lead to the strengthening of the militant Islamists. We believe that due to the differences in the interpretation of jihad, as well as the historic unreliability of the African partners, al-Qaeda will not be able to permanently secure implementation of its strategies and, consequently, will not be able to dependably count on Africa as its future permanent and firm stronghold. In spite of this, Africa’s security problems could impact overall international community, thus stimulating the key international actors to increase their counterterrorism activities aimed at removal of the causes that lead to the strengthening of the militant Islamism on the continent.

Africa ; al-Qaeda ; jihad ; Islam ; terrorism

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